Introducing this blog
I’ve decided to occasionally write about stuff I think is important and post it on the internet. Yes, yes, how embarrassing, I know.
What I mean by “important” is that I’m not going to be writing about, like, “Why I think Mauritanian folk music is awesome” — even though I want to. I’ll only write here if
I think that people (e.g. you) could improve the world by thinking about or acting on what I write (even if only by thinking about why I’m wrong); or
I think I will learn something important by researching and writing about a particular question.
That’s my statement of intent. In practice, it means a lot of classic effective altruist fare: I’ll be writing about topics like AI governance and how farmed animals suffer a lot.
Writing in a time of triage
What’s with the name “Before Porcelain”? In a 1780 letter to his wife, USA President #2 John Adams wrote:
I could fill Volumes with Descriptions of Temples and Palaces, Paintings, Sculptures, Tapestry, Porcelaine, &c. &c. &c. -- if I could have time. But I could not do this without neglecting my duty. The Science of Government it is my Duty to study, more than all other Sciences: the Art of Legislation and Administration and Negotiation, ought to take Place, indeed to exclude in a manner all other Arts. I must study Politicks and War that my sons may have liberty to study Mathematicks and Philosophy. My sons ought to study Mathematicks and Philosophy, Geography, natural History, Naval Architecture, navigation, Commerce and Agriculture, in order to give their Children a right to study Painting, Poetry, Musick, Architecture, Statuary, Tapestry and Porcelaine.
Reading this gives me shivers. Adams didn’t specifically mention Mauritanian folk music (because his music taste was shit, probably) but he captures how I feel.
My blog’s title is a sympathetic and solemn nod to Adams’s remark. Despite the ~250 years since 1780, we’re still in an era of obligations, of Politicks and War, of pressing needs and desperate triage. Every moment I write here, billions of animals are suffering on factory farms, millions of people are suffering from preventable diseases, and new technologies are altering the future irreversibly. The stakes are high; the opportunity costs are high; I want this blog to be writing I can justify. And that means writing about all the important stuff that comes before porcelain.
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What to expect, concretely
Here are some pieces I hope to write:
When discussing emerging technologies like AI, some people make an analogy to nuclear energy: nuclear fission could have brought humanity tremendous benefits, but mostly didn’t, because of overly cautious regulation. We should be careful not to make this mistake again, such people say. But I think the nuclear energy analogy isn’t that useful, and I want to write about why.
I think that estimates of suffering intensity, like the Global Burden of Disease estimates, might dramatically underestimate the intensity of certain kinds of extreme suffering. If they do, that would have implications for what effective altruists should prioritize.
Can we do useful “psychology” research on LLMs? Or does the knife-edge sensitivity of outputs to the wording of prompts make this type of research worthless? Practically speaking, how can researchers assess the robustness of an LLM’s linguistic habits?
Could/should alternative protein firms offer (nonvoting) equity to farmers, in order to reduce political opposition to a transition away from meat?
Some philosophers have proposed that some minds might contain other minds as subparts: For example, maybe beehives and bees are both independently conscious, even though beehives are made up of bees. More speculatively, the USA might be a conscious mind comprised of many individual minds, and extremely intelligent AIs might simulate conscious minds within their own thought processes. I’d like to write about the general purported phenomenon of ‘nested’ consciousnesses, including how nested minds might work and how we should treat them, ethically speaking.
Practical heuristics for deciding whether your research is actually “infohazardous” on the margin.
This should provide a more palpable flavor of the content you can expect. If you think it might be interesting, I’d be grateful if you subscribed or shared the blog with a friend.
And maybe someday, if I’m old, if things go well, I’ll repost my child’s child’s blog post here, and it will be about porcelain. Or why Mauritanian folk music is awesome.
Who writes this?
I (Zachary Brown) have worked for the last few years as an analyst focused on evaluating charities at scale. Now, I’m starting a new role as a research assistant in the economics of AI. I did an undergraduate degree in philosophy, politics, and economics.
I’m always eager to meet new people, or to get feedback on my work: you can find me on LinkedIn here.
I like whistling indoors, arguing, ducks.